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Weekly market review

Weekly Market Review: 24/07/2017 –28/07/2017

Fed meeting is the last chance for the US currency

 

Forex

USD/JPY, Daily

USDJPY

As a result of the last week, the US currency continued to lose its positions. This was due to weak recent statistics, which led traders to question the idea of further rates’ increase from the US Federal Reserve. Also, new political scandal around President Trump brought even more negativity. Thus, virtually all major currencies recorded growth relative to the US dollar. The largest increase in relation to the US dollar was shown by the Swiss franc (+ 1.89%). A smaller increase was recorded for the euro (+ 1.77%), New Zealand dollar (+ 1.49%), Japanese yen (+ 1.3%), Australian dollar (+ 1.17%), and Canadian dollar (+0.88 %). Only British pound (-0.82%) fell in price.

The main economic news of the coming week will be the release of the Fed’s decision on interest rates, scheduled on Wednesday. Also, an impact is expected from the preliminary data on GDP for the United Kingdom and the United States, which will be presented on Wednesday and Friday, respectively.

 

Stock market

USA

Dow, Daily

Dow

The season of quarterly reporting continues at the US securities’ market. The quarterly reports published to the date indicate that the actual values exceed the projections. Meanwhile, a significant increase in stock indexes is limited by weak economic indicators of the US economy. In addition, the political uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration forces investors to seek safety in protective assets. Following the trading week: Dow -0.27%, S & P + 0.51%, Nasdaq + 2.09%. This week, in addition to quarterly reports, the focus will be on the meeting of the US Federal Reserve.

Europe

IBEX, Daily

IBEX

The main event for the European stock exchanges was, of course, the ECB meeting held on Thursday. From this meeting investors expected certainty on the timing and scope of the reduction of the quantitative easing program.

Meanwhile, the head of the regulator said during the press conference that this issue will be discussed in the fall. Thus, investors will continue to use cheap money from the European central bank for the time being. On the other hand, asset sales are widely observed at the European markets. This is caused by weak economic statistics.

 

Commodity market

GOLD, Daily

Gold

Within a week, precious metal added about $ 30 in price. This is due to the use of gold as a protective agent. It is worth reminding, that gold often acts as a protective asset during political and economic problems. It also serves to protect the savings from inflation. On the other hand, gold is sensitive to the change in the value of the US currency, in which its value is expressed. Thus, for gold, Fed’s meeting is important from an economic point of view, since it can greatly affect the rate of the American currency.

Weekly Market Review: 17/07/2017 –21/07/2017

Bank of Japan and ECB’s decisions on interest rates are the main events of the coming week

 

Forex

EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD

Last week’s main events were the meeting of the Bank of Canada and the US Federal Reserve’s six-month report on monetary policy, delivered by their Chairman. Thus, during the meeting, the Canadian regulator increased rates from 0.5% to 0.75%, which was a surprise for some analysts. Meanwhile, in the accompanying statement, the regulator pointed to the possibility of another increase this year. As for the speech of the Fed’s head, Janet Yellen, her failed to provide any significant support to the US currency.

Despite the fact that the head of the Federal Reserve said that low inflation is more of a temporary phenomenon, she did not specify the exact time frame for the beginning of the balance sheet and higher rates reduction. In addition, data on the consumer price index, released on Friday, were significantly lower than the experts’ forecasts. Thus, the probability of the rapid rates’ increase on the Fed’s part has dropped dramatically. As a result of the last week, all major currencies registered growth against the US dollar. The highest growth against the US dollar was demonstrated by the Australian dollar (+ 2.93%). A smaller strengthening was recorded for the Canadian dollar (+ 1.79%), the British pound (+ 1.73%), the Japanese yen (+ 1.22%), the New Zealand dollar (+ 0.92%), the euro (+ 0.61% ) and the Swiss franc (+ 0.04%). Among the important reports of the upcoming week are the data on inflation in the UK (to be released on Tuesday), the decision of the Bank of Japan and the ECB on interest rates (Thursday), as well as the consumer price index in Canada, which will be presented on Friday.

 

Stock market

USA

S&P500, Daily

SP500

The main US stock indexes grew slightly last week. The main impact on the US stock market came from Janet Yellen’s report on monetary policy before the Congress. In particular, the head of the Federal Reserve stressed that the rate increase will be gradual. This provides support to the stock market, since higher rates make the assets of the stock exchanges less attractive. To some extent, the dynamics of trading was influenced by the start of the quarterly reporting season, which will be this week’s main driver.

Europe

FTSE, Daily

FTSE

The main drivers for European stock markets were speeches of the region’s central bankers. Most of them are concerned about the consequences of Britain’s withdrawal from the EU. In addition, hints at the possibility of upcoming rate hike also put pressure on the stock exchanges. The upcoming week will focus on the meeting of ECB, which is widely expected to announce cuts in volume of the quantitative easing program. This can put serious pressure on the stock market.

 

Commodity  markets

GOLD, Daily

Gold

Precious metal’s quotes spent the beginning of the previous week in a downward trend in response to strong data on the US labor market. Nevertheless, during the week, investors resorted to gold as a protective asset against the background of the scandal surrounding Trump’s eldest son over ties with Russia. Also, gold was supported by the neutral report from the Fed’s governor. In addition, Friday’s weak data on the US economy provided an additional support to gold. It is worth reminding, that gold and the US dollar have an inverse relationship. In the coming week, the dynamics of gold will depend on the central banks’ decisions on rates.

Weekly Market Review: 10/07/2017 –14/07/2017

The market participants will be focused on the US inflation

 

Forex

USD/CAD, Daily

USDCAD

Last week, the USD’s dynamics have changed dramatically. Traders adjusted their positions reflecting on improved economic performance from the US. Also, according to the minutes from the Fed’s meeting published on Wednesday, the leaders of the American regulator intend to start reducing the balance in the near future. At the same time, they are not giving up the idea of rates’ increase.

Along with this, a similar protocol of the ECB meeting pointed to discussions among officials about the curtailment of the quantitative easing program. Actions of two most authoritative world regulators will help strengthen national currencies.

Meanwhile, the long-anticipated NFP report also reflected on the excellent state of the US labour market. A number of important economic indicators will also be released in the coming week. Among the most important reports, it is worth highlighting the inflation data in China, which will be released on Monday morning. Also, the focus will be on the Bank of Canada’s resolution on interest rates and a subsequent press conference, which will be made public on Wednesday.

Finally, a report on the US consumer inflation will be presented on Friday. It is the recorded moderate slowdown in the US inflation that could cause the Fed to blink while looking to achieve its goals.

 

Stock market

USA

Dow, Daily

Dow

Last week was shorter than usual for the US stock market due to the celebration of Independence Day on Tuesday. Meanwhile, after the sell-off a week earlier, the main stock indexes recovered some of the lost positions. This was facilitated by positive statistics on the US labour market. Nevertheless, the escalation of the conflict on the Korean peninsula, triggered by another test of the ballistic missile, forced investors to be cautious about open positions. In addition, the growth of stock markets was limited by the oil decline. As a result of the last week: Dow + 0.30%, S & P + 0.10%, Nasdaq + 0.21%. During the upcoming week investors will be focussed on the beginning of the quarterly reporting season.

Europe

IBEX, Daily

IBEX

The European stock markets also showed a slight increase at the end of the last week. The main driver for the growth was statistics on the economy of the region, which seems to be starting to recover more confidently. Meanwhile, the growth was limited, due to the drop in oil quotes. In addition, ECB officials appear to think about reducing the quantitative easing program, which is not profitable for the stock market.

Also, in the minutes of the European regulator’s meeting, observers can find hints on a possible tightening of the lending terms. An increase in interest rates leads to a rise in the credit’s cost. In the upcoming week, investors’ attention will be focused on companies’ corporate reporting in the region.

 

Commodity markets

GOLD, Daily

Gold

As a result of the last trading week, precious metal lost about $30 of its value. On Monday, gold reacted with a fall to a sharp strengthening of the US currency. Technical signals also contributed to the fall. In the middle of the week, gold stayed in a sideways trend, consolidating near minimum values of this year’s May. Gold received another downward momentum on Friday against the background of strong data on the US labor market. This led to the dollar’s rise and a drop in gold’s prices in response. In the coming week, investors will closely monitor developments around the North Korean conflict. It is worth reminding, that gold’s value largely depends on the US dollar.

Weekly Market Review: 26/06/2017 – 30/06/2017

Central bankers’ speeches and economic statistics will be the main drivers for the upcoming week

 

Forex

USDJPY, DAILY

USDJPY

Last week wasn’t packed with releases of economic statistics. Therefore, the market participants digested political events as well as speeches of representatives of central banks. Thus, in their speeches, the US Federal Reserve officials indicated their continued commitment to tightening credit conditions. This provided support for the US dollar at the beginning of the week.

Nevertheless, volumes of positive statistics on the Eurozone economy also provided support to the European currency. In addition, the victory of the current president’s party in the French parliamentary elections is considered by markets as positive for the Eurozone.

Regarding the official start of the Brexit negotiations between the UK and the EU, which was announced last Monday, it has not yet had a significant impact on the respective currencies. Among the important statistics to be presented next week, one should single out the publication of the final estimate of US GDP on Thursday, as well as the German labour market and GDP data, which will be presented on Friday.

As a result of last week, the major currencies demonstrated a decline relatively to the US currency. The largest decline against the US dollar was shown by the Australian dollar (-0.60%). A smaller drop was recorded for the Canadian dollar (-0.41%), the British pound (-0.40%) and the Japanese yen (-0.35%). The increase was shown by the Swiss franc (+ 0.46%) and New Zealand dollar (+ 0.50%). Meanwhile, the euro closed the week at the opening level.

 

Stock market

USA

Nasdaq, Daily

Nasdaq

Last week there were virtually no economic statistics published. Therefore, investors followed the political news.  Among those one should highlight the revised medical reform presented at the Congress on Thursday. Meanwhile, the technology sector also limited the major stock indexes’ decline, caused by a drop in the energy companies’ shares. The main pressure on the stock exchanges was caused by falling “black gold” prices. As a result of the last week: Dow + 0.06%, S & P + 0.18%, Nasdaq + 1.84%

Europe

IBEX, Daily

IBEX

As a result of the last trading week, European stock indexes mostly fell. This dynamic was mainly caused by investors’ concerns related to the official start of the Brexit negotiations between the UK and the EU. Investors prefer to refrain from major transactions until the position of each of the parties becomes clear.

In addition, certain pressure came from the statements of central bankers. In their speeches, the majority of officials expressed their support to curtailing of the quantitative easing program, which is not profitable for the stock markets. The upcoming week will bring focus on the annual ECB forum, which will be held on June, 26-28, in Portugal.

 

Commodity markets

GOLD, Daily

Gold

The precious metal’s quotes finished last week with a slight increase. This was influenced by the weak US dollar, as well as by economic and political tensions around the world. It is worth noting, that gold is the main protective asset, which is often used by investors to protect their savings. Nevertheless, further growth is constrained by the higher rates’ expectations from the US Federal Reserve. The upcoming week will focus on the US economic statistics, as well as political events around the world.

Weekly Market Review: 12/06/2017 – 16/06/2017

The Interest rates decisions in the United States, Switzerland, Britain and Japan will be this week’s main events

Forex

GBP/USD, Daily

GBPUSD

The main events of the past week were the ECB meeting and the parliamentary elections in the UK, which took place on Thursday. The European central bank has kept the parameters of its policy unchanged. At the same time, forecasts for GDP growth in the region were raised and the expected level of inflation was lowered. This implies that the rates will be kept at the current low levels.

During his press conference, ECB President Mario Draghi avoided giving any signals on downside risks. Nevertheless, he stressed that the rates will remain at the same levels for a long time. As for the UK parliamentary elections, Prime Minister Theresa May lost the absolute majority. This implies certain difficulties in adopting new laws and negotiations with the European Union on Brexit issues. These events put pressure on the euro and pound sterling.

As for the coming week, the main events will be the top managers’ meetings results’ announcement, coming from the US, Switzerland, UK and Japan central banks. The US Federal Reserve will announce its decision on Wednesday. The UK and Swiss central banks will hold their meetings on Thursday and the Bank of Japan will announce its decision on Friday. Most analysts expect a tightening of monetary policy only from the US Federal Reserve. According to their forecasts, the US regulator will raise rates by 25 basis points from 1.00% to 1.25%.

 

Stock market

USA

Dow, Daily

Dow

As a result of last week, only the Dow index was able to produce a modest growth of 0.31%. The S&P and Nasdaq indices showed a decline of 0.34% and 1.55% respectively. Such dynamics were due to the cautiousness of investors in the light the past week’s key events. In addition, investors closely followed the testimony of former FBI director James Comey before the special Senate committee on the alleged Russia’s interference with the US presidential election. Also, the pressure on the raw metal and energy companies’ shares came as a result of falling oil prices. The upcoming week will focus on the world’s leading central banks’ moves.

Meanwhile, investors will be more interested in the future prospects of the monetary policy of the American central bank, rather than simply the fact of the rate increase by the Fed. As a rule, raising rates is negative for the stock market, since loan servicing becomes more expensive.

Europe

FTSE, Daily

FTSE

The major stock indexes in Europe demonstrated mixed dynamics during the course of the last week. Investors were focused on the ECB meeting and the quantitative easing program, which allows investors to borrow at minimum interest. The European regulator has kept its policy parameters unchanged, which means that the asset purchase program in the amount of 60 billion euros remains active until December of this year. Meanwhile, UK’s elections result had a positive impact on European indices, as they led to cheaper national currencies, in which they are quoted. The upcoming week will bring focus on the accompanying statements of central banks after the interest rates decisions’ announcement.

 

Commodity markets

GOLD, Daily

Gold

Quotes of precious metal were mostly in a downtrend during last week, although they grew in the beginning of the week. Such dynamics was caused mainly by fluctuations in the US currency rates, since the price of gold is expressed in it. Meanwhile, from Wednesday to Friday, gold lost about $ 30 in price due to the strengthening of the US dollar. The upcoming week will focus on the Fed’s meeting, which can have a significant impact on the dynamics of gold. According to analysts, gold will be supported by persisting political risks.

Weekly Market Review: 29/05/2017 – 2/06/2017

Next week’s main event will be the NFP report

 

Forex

EUR/USD, Daily

EURUSD

Last week, most of the major currencies demonstrated negative dynamics against the US dollar. The main event of the past week was the publication of the Fed’s minutes from their last meeting. According to the documents, most of the regulator’s managers are determined to raise rates at one of their next meetings. Nonetheless, some of them stated that it is desirable to wait for confirmation that the recent weak data was a temporary occurrence. Meanwhile, despite the negative data on the US economy, the probability of monetary policy tightening at June meeting is growing on an ongoing basis. Along with this, the main event of the upcoming week will be the long-awaited report of the NFP. This is scheduled for next Friday. The report will attract maximum attention, since it can shed light on one of the most important sectors of the American economy, namely the labor market.

 

Stock market

USA

Nasdaq, Daily

Nasdaq

The main stock markets closed high last week. At the beginning of the week, the United States sealed a multibillion arms deal with Saudi Arabia. The conclusion has become the primary driver of growth. The draft budget of the country, presented by the presidential administration, also brought optimism in the stock markets. The positive United States economy figures were driver for growth in the second half of the week. US’ GDP growth and labour market data turned out to be higher than the experts’ expectations. In the coming week, the main driver for the stock exchanges will be the Friday NFP report.

Europe

IBEX, Daily

IBEX

The main European stock indexes spent last week mainly in an uptrend. The reason for this dynamic was the business activity data in the manufacturing and services sectors in France, Germany and the eurozone in general. The German Institute IFO presented highly optimistic data on the current atmosphere in the business community. Meanwhile, the ECB head Mario Draghi spoke of the large-scale restoration of the region’s economy. This week, investors’ attention will be on the economic data, which may have an impact on the ECB decision on interest rates.

 

Commodity markets

GOLD, Daily

Gold

Gold finished last week in a green zone. The scandal surrounding the US presidential administration supported the precious metal. Meanwhile, the leaders of the G7 countries encountered difficulties during negotiations with the US president. This situation only aggravates the political tension in the world. According to analysts, gold will be supported by investors amid short-term uncertainty about the British parliamentary elections. This week, the focus will be on US economic data.

WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW − April 3-7, 2017

Friday’s NFP report will be this week’s most impactful event.

 

Forex

AUD/USD, Daily

20170403_2_AUDUSD

Most major currencies traded with mixed results against the dollar last week. Earlier in the week the Trump’s failed health care reform plan hurt the dollar. However, since Tuesday the US dollar has for the most part recouped its losses thanks to better than expected US economic statistics. Additionally, US Federal Reserve representatives mentioned that the US economy may require additional rate hikes.

This week will feature the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate decision, scheduled for 4:30 GMT. Investors will additionally pay attention to the FOMC Minutes, scheduled for Wednesday 18:00 GMT. However, the most impactful event week will be Friday’s NFP report.

 

Stock Market

United States

Nasdaq, Daily

20170403_2_Nasdaq

Last week, the main US stock indexes grew modestly. Negative news regarding failed vote of the medical reform was outplayed by strong economic statistics. Rising oil prices helped prop up the market. In the coming week, investors will focus on US economic statistics.

Europe

FTSE, Daily

20170403_2_FTSE

The official start of the Brexit procedure was the dominant event that impacted the European Stock exchanges last week. Market participants closely followed developments and the reaction of EU representatives. Despite the beginning of the divorce between the UK and the EU, the market has not yet fully considered the possible consequences of such a move in prices.

 

Commodities

Brent Oil Futures, Daily

20170403_2_BrentOil

Oil rose by $2 last week. It was caused by interruptions in oil supply from Libya, where the armed confrontation has escalated recently. In addition, the growth in US oil stocks was not as large as most experts expected. Meanwhile, investors expect that participants of the production-cut deal will extend it for another six months. Nevertheless, the number of existing drilling rigs is increasing, which may lead to an imbalance of the market.

 

WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW − March 20-24, 2017

Fed’s Janet Yellen statement will impact the markets this week

 

Forex

NZD/USD, Daily

NZDUSD

Last week almost all of the major currencies grew against the US dollar. Last week’s most important event was the FOMC Meeting and it did not disappoint. The Fed raised the rates by 0.25%, but Janet Yellen’s statement was softer than what most investors expected. Traditionally, market participants recorded profits after the US dollar strengthened significantly.

This week traders are waiting for another Janet Yellen statement. Additionally, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will conduct its interest rate meeting at 20:00 GMT. This Friday Eurozone manufacturing and services PMI will be presented. On the same day, Canada will report on consumer price inflation.

 

Stocks

USA

S&P500, Daily

SP500

Most US stock indices closed last week in the green zone. The main drivers for the stock markets were shares in the financial sector. Investors were waiting for the Fed’s decision on the interest rates. American regulator will not rush with the next increase in rates. This situation makes investing in securities profitable for investors. Meanwhile, the securities market is also reacting to the change in quotations of “black gold”. Last week, oil traded in a narrow range with some pressure down. Nevertheless, the US economy has recently demonstrated a decent growth, which is reflected in the quotations of securities. The focus of attention in the upcoming week will be US statistics, as well as the performance of representatives of the US Federal Reserve.

 

Europe

FTSE, Daily

FTSE

European stock markets closed the week with positive dynamics. Meanwhile, the political events of the region drive markets. So, on Wednesday there were elections to the Parliament of the Netherlands. Investors feared that a radical party, which is committed to withdrawing from the European Union, can win the elections. Traders are also worried about Brexit start so UK assets are under pressure. This week EU economic statistics will impact markets.

 

Commodities

Brent Oil Futures, Daily

BrentOil

Quotations of “black gold” spent last week in a narrow range. Nevertheless, oil grew by 0.4%. Meanwhile, the unexpected reduction of US inventories provided support for oil. At the same time, traders are worried that Russia and Saudi Arabia increased oil production.

WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW − March 13-17, 2017

Interest Rate Decisions will Move the Markets this Week

 

Forex

GBP/USD, Daily

GBPUSD

The euro grew for the second week in a row but most of the main currencies including the pound lost about 0.5% against the US dollar last week. The largest decline was with the New Zealand dollar − 1.55%.

Last week’s main focal points were interest rate meetings featuring the Reserve Bank of Australia and the European Central Bank. As most analysts expected, both banks kept their monetary policy settings unchanged. ECB President Mario Draghi did however stress that the rates will remain the same for a while. Nevertheless, starting from April, the quantitative easing program in the euro area will be reduced by €20 billion a month. The NFP report did provide some impact, with it coming in better than expected along with a better than anticipated unemployment rate. Despite this, average wage growth did not reach the average forecasts of experts, thereby reducing the overall impact.

The coming week will be full of impactful economic news, with Wednesday’s FOMC Meeting taking center stage. Additionally, on Thursday national banks in Japan, Switzerland and the UK will make their interest rate decisions. Though most analysts believe that the banks won’t change their monetary policies.

 

Stocks

USA

Dow, Daily

Dow

US stock indexes declined by about 0.5% last week. The largest drop came via the pharmaceutical and energy companies. This happened after Trump’s statement about drugs being too expensive. Nevertheless, better than expected US labor market data helped the US indexes

This week the FOMC Meeting will be the main focal point.

 

Europe

DAX, Daily

DAX

Most European stock indexes spent the past week in a narrow range. Traders are focused on the upcoming French presidential elections as well as the Bexit. Meanwhile, Thursday’s past ECB meeting provided support for stocks.

This week traders will pay a lot of attention to central banks’ meetings of US, Japan, Switzerland and the UK.

 

Commodities

Brent Oil Futures, Daily

BrentOil

“Black Gold” experienced its worst week of the year so far. So, by the results of trading last week, oil prices fell by 8%. Such dynamics were caused by fears of investors about the increase in oil production in the US. This was also indicated by reports on reserves from API and the US Department of Energy, stocks grew to multi-year highs. At the same time, the volume of oil production in the US returned to the level preceding the fall in prices for this energy carrier. US currency’s growth put additional pressure on oil.

Against this backdrop, investors preferred to record profits on transactions for the purchase of oil. It is worth noting that the number of open positions for “black gold” on the New York Mercantile Exchange is at historic highs.

WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW − March 6-10, 2017

NFP will be this week’s main event

 

Forex

EUR/USD, Daily

EURUSD

Most major currencies fell against the US dollar at the end of the last week as statements from Fed officials positively impacted the US currency. Last Wednesday US president Donald Trump confirmed his intention to reduce taxes, but also noted that in order to implement these reforms it would require one trillion dollars.

This week the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its interest rate at 3:30 GMT. Additionally, the ECB will set its interest rate as well at Thursday, 12:45 GMT, followed by ECB President Mario Draghi’s press-conference at 13:30 GMT.

This week’s most impactful event is the NFP report, scheduled for 13:30 GMT.

 

Stocks

USA

S&P500, Daily

SP500

Major US stock indexes closed last week in the green zone. US President Trump’s speech provided strong support for the markets causing the US stock indexes to reach new highs. During the second half of the week, investors took profits after a week of significant growth.

 

Europe

FTSE, Daily

FTSE

European stock markets were impacted by the continuous political problems in the region including the French presidential election. However, positive US stock market dynamics added optimism to European investors. This week’s most impactful event in the region is the upcoming ECB meeting, scheduled for Thursday, March 9.

 

Commodities

Brent Oil Futures, Daily

BrentOil

Oil spent last week engulfed in a downward trend. Drilling activity in the US increased, putting some pressure on the oil market. Additionally, US crude stocks grew on a weekly basis. At the same time, the strengthening of the USD keeps pushing oil prices downwards.

This week investors will watch for changes in the scope of production and reserves.