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Daily market review

Daily Market Review – 6/06/2017

The US dollar continues to decline

Forex

A neutral statement from RBA was enough to lift the Australian dollar

AUD/USD

AUDUSD

Yesterday, the Australian dollar continued to rise. The NFP report has not justified expectations, and this was reflected in the pair’s dynamics. Data on business activity in the US services sector, presented yesterday, also did not meet experts’ forecasts.

Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia announced their decision on interest rates today. As most analysts expected, the Australian regulator did not change the parameters of the current monetary policy, keeping rates at the previous level of 1.5%. In the accompanying statement, the regulator’s representatives said that the current monetary policy is consistent with the goals for GDP and inflation. In general, the assessment of the Australian economy was positive, which supported the national currency.

Nevertheless, further trade’s dynamics may be influenced by the publication of data on the US labour market at 14:00 (GMT). In addition, investors will prepare for the release of data on Australia’s GDP for the first quarter of this year.

Resistance levels: 0,74984, 0,75097, 0,75207
Support levels: 0,74655, 0,74472, 0,74264

 

Retail sales data will have an impact on the euro

EUR/JPY

EURJPY

The Japanese is currently in a high demand as a protective asset across wide range of markets. This is due to political uncertainty surrounding the parliamentary elections in Britain and France, which will be held on June, 8 and 11, respectively. In addition, some pressure on the pair came as a reaction on conflict in the Persian Gulf, where several countries ceased diplomatic relations with Qatar. Meanwhile, todays’ release of the Eurozone’s retail sales data for April of this year may have some influence. Along with this, market participants will be getting ready for the ECB meeting, which is scheduled for next Thursday. It is worth noting, that some analysts expect that the rhetoric of the bank’s top managers will be different at this meeting.

Resistance levels: 124,185, 124,526, 124,855
Support levels: 123,386, 123,038, 122,661

 

Stock market

European stocks drop

FTSE Futures

FTSE

The majority of European stock indexes closed low yesterday. This was a reaction to weak final data on business activity in the services sector in France, Germany and the Eurozone as a whole. In addition, the main service sector in the UK recorded a smaller increase in May compare to that most analysts expected. Today, investors will pay attention to the economic statistics in the euro area. Meanwhile, closer attention will be focused on the alignment of political forces ahead of the legislative elections in Great Britain and France.

Resistance levels: 7518,07, 7533,27, 7548,28
Support levels: 7498,35, 7485,58, 7469,92

 

Commodity market

Political risks support gold

GOLD

Gold

Yesterday quotes for precious metal stayed in the sideways range, stabilizing at six-month highs. Last Friday, gold rose by about $ 15 in price on the background of disappointing statistics on the US labour market. Meanwhile, negative data on the NFP could not reduce the likelihood of tightening monetary policy at the next Fed’s meeting. Nevertheless, some investors are doubtful that the American regulator will be able to increase rates two more times this year. It is worth noting that the US currency and gold have an inverse ratio. With the surge of the US currency, gold loses appeal to investors, as it does not bring interest income. Nevertheless, the precious metal rose, reacting on the last weekend’s terrorist attacks in the UK. In addition, political uncertainty in Europe is also a positive driver for gold, which is often used as a protective asset.

Resistance levels: 1295.00, 1297,90, 1301,00
Support levels: 1283,38, 1278,64, 1274,20

Daily Market Review – 1/06/2017

Markets are adjusting in anticipation of tomorrow’s NFP report

Forex

The Australian dollar is under pressure

AUD/USD

USDJPY

The pair started yesterday’s trading session on a high, supported by China’s statistics, which is Australia’s largest trading partner. However, the pair quickly lost the gained position after disappointing data on private sector lending in Australia was realized.

During the day, the pair declined, reflecting on negative dynamics on commodity markets. To make matters worse, additional pressure on the pair came from the Fed’s “Beige book” data. According to the data presented by the Fed, economic activity continues to gain momentum in most federal districts of the USA.

Meanwhile, the pair fell sharply this morning, reflecting on the negative statistics on the manufacturing activity in China last month. The further pair dynamics will depend on investors’ feelings toward the US dollar. It is worth noting that market participants will be preparing for the NFP report release tomorrow.

Resistance levels: 0,74161, 0,74424, 0,74662
Support levels: 0,73844, 0,73699, 0,73552

 

The economic statistics can support the US dollar

USD/JPY

USDJPY

The Japanese respected its status of safe-haven currency. That is why in recent years, the market participants have resorted to buying yen in all currency pairs, without exception. This is facilitated by the continuing geopolitical tensions in the world and conflicts around the Trump administration.

Today, the pair’s dynamics may be significantly affected by the data from the ADP employment report, scheduled for presentation at 12:15 (GMT). In addition, the traditional weekly report on the US labor market will be presented at 12:30 (GMT). Another possible driver, the production index of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), will be published at 14:00 (GMT).

Resistance levels: 111,235, 111,477, 111,744
Support levels: 110,768, 110,530, 110,322

 

Stock market

Negative statistics put pressure on European stock exchanges

FTSE Futures

FTSE

The main European stock markets closed yesterday’s trading in different directions. This was facilitated by the uncertainty surrounding the parliamentary elections in the UK, which will be held on June 8. Some pressure came from May data on consumer price inflation in the euro area. According to the data released yesterday, inflation declined after a sharp jump. This caused a cautious tone of the ECB’s representatives’ statement on further measures to stimulate the region’s economy. Today, the dynamics of trading may react to the publication of the business activity index in the manufacturing sector, which will be presented at 08:30 (GMT).

Resistance levels: 7548,30, 7559,90, 7570,44
Support levels: 7511,50, 7498,35, 7485,60

 

Commodity market

Geopolitics supports the gold quotes

GOLD

Gold

During yesterday’s trading session, gold’s price increased moderately due to the USD’s weakening and to the continuation of political tension. Nevertheless, the further growth of gold quotes is limited, as the market projects prices with respect to the rate decision from the US Federal Reserve. The meeting of the American regulator, scheduled for June 13-14, may have a strong impact on the dynamics of gold. With increasing rates, gold becomes less attractive to investors, as it does not bring interest income. Meanwhile, in the nearest future, special attention of investors will focus on US economic statistics. Moreover, tomorrow investors’ attention will be focused on the long-awaited report of the NFP.

Resistance levels: 1270,50, 1273,75, 1278,10
Support levels: 1265,30, 1262,20, 1260,30

Daily Market Review – 31/05/2017

The markets are focused on the events in Europe

Forex

Economic statistics can provide further support for the euro

EUR/USD

EURUSD

Yesterday, the European currency demonstrated growth. Meanwhile, a certain impact on the dynamics of the pair was made by the May figures of the consumer price index in Germany which turned out to be below experts’ forecasts. At the same time, Americans consumer spending and incomes grew solidly, in line with the forecasts. However, the data presented was not enough to turn the pair dynamics around, because it was rumored that the ECB could shift to a more rigid position. This will support the euro on the medium term.

Today, the focus will be on statistics on changes in consumer prices and unemployment in the euro area. If the actual data exceed the forecast values, the single currency will receive another stimulus to growth. Meanwhile, the trading volume will gradually decline as we approach Friday, when the NFP report will be presented.

Resistance levels: 1,11964, 1,12213, 1,12501
Support levels: 1,11464, 1,11160, 1,10888

Politic is the main driver for the GBP

GBP/USD

GBPUSD

During yesterday’s morning session, the British currency was growing against its American counterpart. This dynamics was due to continued sales of the US currency across a wide range of markets. Meanwhile, some support for the US dollar was provided by data on the price index of personal consumption expenditures, which were slightly higher than expected. Along with this, the main driver for the pair is the alignment of political forces in the UK, as the parliamentary elections are approaching. The uncertainty surrounding the parliamentary elections caused the pair to drop rapidly yesterday. According to the latest polls, the current Prime Minister Teresa May’s party has a minimal lead over its competitors. Today, the pair’s dynamics may react to the data on consumer lending in the UK, presented at 08:30 (GMT). In addition, the market participants are looking forward to the US’ Federal Reserve officials speeches.

Resistance levels: 1,28286, 1,128718, 1,29260
Support levels: 1,27758, 1,27425, 1,27140

 

Stock market

The US stock markets froze anticipating the main news of the week

S&500 Futures

SP500

The main stock markets declined slightly during the first trading day of the week. Such dynamics was caused by the shares’ fall in the banking and energy sectors. Certain influence came from the sliding confidence indicator of the US consumers. At the same time, the political uncertainty surrounding the US presidential administration puts the US securities market under pressure. Today the trading dynamics may be somewhat affected by the data on unfinished sales in housing market in the US, which is scheduled at 14:00 (GMT).

Resistance levels: 2414,48, 2419,84, 2426,00
Support levels: 2406,10, 2402,57, 2397,00

 

Commodity market

Black Gold continues to fall

Brent Oil Futures

BrentOil

Yesterday oil quotes lost about 1.55 of their value, which was due to concerns about the efforts of the largest oil-producing countries to reduce the surplus in the world market. It is worth reminding, that last week the OPEC countries extended the production cuts deal for another nine months. Meanwhile, investors are concerned about the increase in oil production in the US, which can offset the efforts of other oil producers. Today, trade dynamics will be affected by changes in USD exchange rate, since value of oil is expressed in this currency.

Resistance levels: 51,90, 52,40, 52,75
Support levels: 51,00, 50,45, 50,00

Daily Market Review – 30/05/2017

The American statistics will be set the trend on the market

Forex

The growth of consumer spending in the US will affect the dynamics of the pair

USD/CAD

USDCAD

The US markets were closed yesterday, which caused the trading volume drop. Nevertheless, the pair reacted to technical signals.

Meanwhile, the figures on consumer price index for personal consumption in the US in April will be presented today at 12:30 (GMT). This is an indicator of inflation in the US, which the Fed addresses in their monetary policy decision-making.

Also, April’s data on personal incomes and expenditures of Americans will be released at the same time. As for the Canadian economy, data on producer prices for April will be presented at 12:30 (GMT). At the same time, the US consumer confidence indicator, which will be published at 14:00 (GMT), could have a strong impact on the pair’s dynamics. It is worth noting, that at the end of the week we can expect release of the long-awaited NFP report.

Resistance levels: 1,34969, 1,35336, 1,35650
Support levels: 1,34407, 1,34053, 1,33807

Inflation in Germany will be on the radar

EUR/JPY

EURJPY

Yesterday, the pair demonstrated a predominantly downward trend. The pressure on the pair came from ECB’s President Mario Draghi. In his speech, the ECB head stressed that broadly speaking the Eurozone economy is being restored to its normal parameters. Nevertheless, it is too early to talk about the end of the economic stimulus. This implies a longer-term quantitative easing program. Meanwhile, April data on unemployment and retail sales in Japan were presented during the evening session yesterday. The data exceeded the analysts’ expectations, which supported the Japanese currency.

Nevertheless, today the dynamics of the pair could be affected by the figures for the consumer price index in Germany in May, which is scheduled for presentation at 12:00 (GMT). In addition, the report on industrial production in Japan over the past month will be released at 23:50 (GMT).

Resistance levels: 123,540, 124,010, 124,432
Support levels: 122,998, 122,517, 121,983

Stock market

The European stock markets show restrained dynamics

IBEX Futures

IBEX

The main European stock exchanges closed yesterday’s trading in different directions. In acknowledgement of the official days off in China, the UK and the US, the trading volumes were lower than usual. Nevertheless, investors’ attention was drawn to weekend polls in the UK, according to which the conservative Teresa May is still ahead of the competition. Also, the speech of ECB President Mario Draghi was in the focus of attention. The ECB President confirmed the intention of the regulator to continue large-scale stimulation. Today, the focus will be on German inflation data, as well as dynamics in other global stock exchanges.

Resistance levels: 10882,15, 10927,71, 10953,34
Support levels: 10783,43, 10748,31,10713,19

 

Commodity market

Gold’s value is gradually rising

GOLD

Gold

Yesterday gold prices stabilised at a four-weeks high. Political tension around the US presidential administration remains high, which supports gold as a protective asset. In addition, large investors increase their net gold long positions on commodity markets. The dynamics of trading may be affected by the publication of US economic statistics in the afternoon.

Resistance levels: 1270,00, 1273,75, 1278,10
Support levels: 1265,28, 1262,19, 1259,38

Daily Market Review – 29/05/2017

Today’s trading session promises to be calm

Forex

The US currency recovers some lost ground

EUR/USD

EURUSD

Last Friday, the pair was under pressure due to the general strengthening of the US currency. The ECB representative Benoit Kere made a certain impact, noting in his speech that it is still too early to talk about curtailing the quantitative easing program. Also, according to the revised US GDP estimate, the indicator was at the level of 1.2% against the expected 0.9%.

It is worth noting that the consumer sentiment index increased slightly this month, although it turned out to be below the forecast values. Today, the speech of ECB’s President Mario Draghi might affect the pair’s dynamics.

Resistance levels: 1,12240, 1,12632, 1,12993
Support levels: 1,11603, 1,11220, 1,10750

The Japanese labour market and retail sales report will affect the pair’s dynamics

USD/JPY

USDJPYThe Japanese currency rose on Friday morning. This dynamics was due to the publication of positive data on the Japan consumer inflation over the last month. However, the US statistics publication in the second half of the day had enough impact to change the trend. Today, the dynamics of the currency pair will depend largely on political factors, since the Japanese yen often acts as a defensive asset. Despite this, the market apparently ignored another North Korean missile test. Nevertheless, today’s publication of the Japan unemployment rate, household spending and retail sales will have some impact on the pair. It is scheduled at 23:30 (GMT).

 

Resistance levels: 112,141, 113,066, 114,351
Support levels: 110,352, 109,652, 108,881

 

Stock market

The Russian oil giant will present its quarterly results tomorrow

ОАО ЛУКОЙЛ (LKOH)

Lukoil

Tomorrow during the regular session, LUKOIL, one of the leaders of the Russian oil industry, will release its quarterly report. According to the experts’ expectations, the profit per share will be 238.50 rubles, and the total revenue should rise to the level of 798.56 billion rubles. If the actual data exceeds the forecast values, the value of the shares may rise to the level of 2840.00 rubles.

Resistance levels: 2808,00, 2830,30, 2846,70
Support levels: 2777,10, 2764,20, 2753,00

 

Commodity market

“Black Gold” is recovering after the Thursday fall

Brent Oil Futures

BrentOil

The oil quotes recovered somewhat after falling on Thursday. The drop was caused by OPEC’s decision to keep oil production at the previous levels. Investors expected that the cartel would decide to reduce the larger volume of production. Reflecting on the outcome of OPEC’s meeting, quotes lost more than 5%. Nevertheless, Friday’s growth was caused by partial profit-taking after a significant fall. Meanwhile, a certain impact on the dynamics of trading was provided by a report from the service company Baker Hughes, according to which the number of operating drilling rigs in the US increased by 2 units last week. It is expected that today’s trade dynamics will be influenced by technical factors.

Resistance levels: 52,40, 52,75, 53,20
Support levels: 51,50, 51,00, 50,40

Daily Market Review – 25/05/2017

Todays Top Event is the OPEC meeting

Forex

Today the British statistics will affect the pair’s dynamics

 

GBP/USD

GBPUSD

The currency pair showed multi-directional dynamics yesterday, although it stabilized in the end. During the morning session, the pair dropped significantly, reflecting on the influence of technical factors. Nevertheless, the publication of the US Federal Reserve records helped to restore all lost positions.

According to the documents presented yesterday, the American regulator’s management hopes that the economic weakness of the first quarter was only temporary. However, they will need more evidence of the strength of the US economy to announce the next rate increase.

Today, the focus will be on the UK commercial investment data and the country’s GDP in the revised estimate for the first quarter of this year. Meanwhile, OPEC’s decision to cut oil production may have an indirect effect, since the GBP often reacts to changes in the raw commodity markets.

Resistance levels: 1,30050, 1,30250, 1,30478
Support levels: 1,29559, 1,29317, 1,29062

 

Today oil will direct the pair’s moves

EUR/CAD

EURCAD

Yesterday, the pair was driven by the speeches of central banks’ officials. During the morning session, the euro strengthened, a reflection on the speech of ECB President Mario Draghi, who gave a positive assessment on the Eurozone economy. However, the pair fell sharply after the Bank of Canada announced its decision on interest rates. As it was predicted by majority of analysts, the Canadian regulator kept their monetary policy unchanged. It also indicated that the Canadian economic recovery is faster than most experts predicted.

Nevertheless, there is an even more important event coming for the Canadian dollar. Today OPEC will hold its regular meeting at Vienna headquarters. Extending the deal on oil production cuts is on today’s agenda. If this agreement is extended, the oil prices will rally and support the Canadian currency. We would like to remind you that crude oil exports are the largest positive contributor to the Canadian budget.

 

Resistance levels: 1,50900, 1,51350, 1,51827
Support levels: 1,50144, 1,49676, 1,49332

 

Stock market

The US stock market updated historical highs

 

S&P500 Futures

SP500

The main US stock markets demonstrated steady growth yesterday, showing an increase for the sixth consecutive session. At the same time, the S & P500 and Nasdaq indices hit new historical highs. This was facilitated by the publication of the US Federal Reserve minutes from their last meeting. According to the documents, the Federal Reserve officials are preparing another rate increase at their next meeting. To make matters even better, they positively assessed the current state of the American economy. Today, the investors’ attention will be on the OPEC decision, which can support oil prices. Energy companies’ shares are expected to jump, which, in turn, will push up the stock indexes.

Resistance levels: 2414,48, 2419,84, 2426,00
Support levels: 2404,09, 2397,92, 2391,26

 

Commodity market

Fed’s minutes provided support for gold yesterday

GOLD

Gold

Gold received support from the Fed meeting’s minutes yesterday. The main topic was about further rates increases, which are likely to require more evidence of the US’ economic recovery. With this in the background, most investors preferred to record profits after the fall seen the day before. Today, the publication of the traditional report on the US labor market will have a certain impact on the trading dynamics. The publication is scheduled at 12:30 (GMT).

Meanwhile, on the medium term, gold can also gain from the political uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration, since the precious metal is traditionally used as a protective asset during political and economic crises.

 

Resistance levels: 1263,75, 1270,00, 1276,00
Support levels: 1250,00, 1244,90, 1239,00

Daily Market Review – 24/05/2017

Fed’s meeting minutes will support the USD

Forex

The Australian dollar dropped sharply

AUD/USD

AUDUSD

Yesterday morning, the pair grew against the background of investors’ risk seeking. This caused the US currency to drop. Nevertheless, the dynamics changed in the afternoon session. Some support for the USD was provided by data on the business activity index in the services sector. The numbers appeared to be higher than the analysts’ expectations.

The US currency continued to recover after a speech by Federal Reserve Service spokesman Patrick Harker. The official said he was confident that the rates will rise at the June meeting.

To make matters worse for the AUD, the rating agency Moody’s downgraded the China long-term rating today. This brought the Australian dollar under strong pressure, as China is an important strategic partner of Australia. Meanwhile, the main attention will be focused on the US Federal Reserve’ minutes from the last meeting, which will be presented at 18:00 (GMT). It is expected that the document will be of a “hawkish” nature, which will confirm the expectations of the market for raising rates at the next meeting.

 

Resistance levels: 0,74662, 0,74887, 0,75116
Support logic: 0,74228, 0,74015, 0,73782

 

The Bank of Canada’ decision will be the main driver for the pair at today auction

USD/CAD

USDCAD

Yesterday, the pair’s dynamics repeated completely the fluctuations of other major currencies. The morning session was tough on the US dollar, but it strengthened in the afternoon. This was due to positive statistical data on the US economy. Also, the Trump administration introduced a draft budget for the second half of this year. The document implies a significant reduction in spending, and further investment of freed funds in the US economy.

The Bank of Canada will announce its decision on interest rates today at 14:00 (GMT). According to analysts’ forecasts, the parameters of the current monetary policy will not be changed at today’s meeting. Therefore, the accompanying statement of the Canadian regulator will be of greatest interest.

Resistance levels: 1,35663, 1,35952, 1,36165
Support levels: 1,35092, 1,34792, 1,34554

 

Stock market

Strong data on the Eurozone economy supported the stock markets

CAC Futures

CAC

The main European stock markets completed yesterday’s trading in the green zone. Such dynamics was caused by positive statistics on the Eurozone economy in general, and the German economy in particular. According to the data presented, the business activity indices in the manufacturing and services sectors for the main Eurozone countries were higher than expected. In addition, data from the German institute IFO indicated a significant improvement in the German economic climate this month. Today, trade’s dynamics will be affected by the downgrading of China long-term rating, as well as ECB’s officials speeches.

 

Resistance levels: 5319,54, 5338,35, 5352,91
Support levels: 5291,92, 5278,88, 5263,40

 

Commodity market

Hopes for the OPEC agreement extension support oil prices

 

Brent Oil Futures

BrentOil

The majority of investors expect that OPEC will extend the agreement on production cuts for another nine months at their next meeting. Yesterday, these expectations offset the negative reaction after Trump’s decision to sell half of the strategic oil reserves. Also, according to the proposal from the US presidential administration, drilling on the Alaska shelf will soon be allowed. Meanwhile, definite support for the “black gold” quotes was provided by yesterday’s report from the US Oil Institute. According to their data, the reserves fell by 1.5 million barrels.

Today, the trading dynamics will reflect on the publication of a similar report from the US Department of Energy at 14:30 (GMT).

Resistance levels: 55,00, 55,50, 56,00
Support levels: 53,65, 53,20, 52,60

Daily Market Review – 23/05/2017

The USD remains under pressure

Forex

German’s data from the IFO Institute in focus

EUR/USD

EURUSD

During yesterday’s trading session, the European currency reached a six-month high against the US dollar. In the absence of economic statistics, the main driver for the pair was Angela Merkel’s speech. The German chancellor noted that the euro was “too weak” because of ECB’s soft monetary policy. Most market participants interpreted this speech as a signal for the ECB to begin a gradual tightening of the policy, which could support the euro.

Meanwhile, investors’ focus will be on preliminary data on the business activity index in the manufacturing and services sectors in France, Germany and the Eurozone in general. The data will be presented in the morning. Special attention will be paid to the data from German IFO Institute for Economic Research, which will be published at 08:00 (GMT). Similar indicators for the US economy will be presented at 13:45 (GMT).

Resistance levels: 1,12632, 1,12993, 1,13384
Support levels: 1,11712, 1,11220, 1,10750

The pound declined

GBP/JPY

Gold

The British currency remained under pressure for the second day in a row. Yesterday’s decline came as a reaction on the information that Britain can refuse negotiations with the EU if Brussels insists on paying 100 billion euros “exit” bill. This opinion was expressed by the UK Minister David Davis. Also, last night’s explosion in the Manchester Arena took at least 22 lives and left about 50 people injured. The police regard this as a terrorist act. Against this background, it is possible that the parliamentary elections scheduled for June 8, will be postponed.

Since the yen is a protective asset in the event of political or economic risks, this morning the pound fell slightly against JPY. Further pair’s dynamics will be influenced by investors.

Resistance levels: 144,715, 145,380, 145,924
Support levels: 143,823, 143,343, 142,640

Stock market

The largest bank of Russia will present its quarterly results tomorrow

Сбербанк ПАО (SBER)

Sberbank

Tomorrow, the largest state bank of Russia, Sberbank, will present its financial result for the first quarter of this year. Despite the sanctions imposed by the government of Ukraine against the subsidiaries of the financial holding, it is expected that the results in the reporting period will exceed analysts’ expectations. For example, the earnings-per-share is expected to be at the level of 6.50 rubles, while the total revenue will rise to the level of 721.3 billion rubles. If the actual values confirm the forecast, the shares’ value may rise to 173.00 rubles.

Resistance levels: 170,14, 171,30, 172,41
Support levels: 165,55, 163,65, 162,21

Commodity market

Political risks support gold

GOLD

Gold

The investors’ appetite for gold hit new high on the background of increased political risks. These include the scandal surrounding the Trump administration, the ongoing missile tests of North Korea, as well as yesterday’s terrorist attack in the Manchester Arena. The weakening US dollar also provides additional support for gold. According to analysts, quotes may grow up to a mark of $ 1,300.00 per ounce in the short term. Meanwhile, today and tomorrow, investors will be expecting the publication of the US Federal Reserve protocols. This document may shed light on the prospects of further tightening of the regulator’s monetary policy.

 

Resistance levels: 1265,00, 1270,00, 1276,00
Support levels: 1257,00, 1250,00, 1244,00

Daily Market Review – 22/05/2017

Today’s main event: EU’s finance ministers meeting

Forex

The UK may refuse to negotiate with the EU

GBP/USD

GBPUSD

The British currency grew during Friday’s trading because of the USD’s weakening. However, the GBP started this week with a moderate fall, due to reports that the UK may refuse to negotiate the exit from the EU. The British government is ready to take such a step if Brussels will continue to insist on their “exit” bill of 100 billion euros. Earlier, the cost of leaving the EU was estimated at 60 billion euros. The issue may be discussed at today’s meeting of the EU finance ministers.

 

Resistance levels: 1,30132, 1,30395, 1,30600
Support levels: 1,29406, 1,29057, 1,28742

Fed officials’ speeches will influence the USD’s dynamics

 

USD/JPY

USDJPY

Last Friday, the pair traded in a narrow range. The USD’s dynamics is still reflecting on the scandal surrounding the Trump administration. Meanwhile, the dollar is supported by a high probability of the Federal Reserve monetary policy tightening to be announced at their June meeting. To help it even more, the Federal Reserve Bank representative Bullard stressed in his Friday speech that he would support raising rates, if those are to be announced in June. Today, the attention will be on the American regulator representatives’ speeches, scheduled for the evening session.

Resistance levels: 111,700, 112,230, 112,750
Support levels: 110,900, 110,350, 110,000

 

Stock market

Major US stock indices reduced losses

Dow Futures

Dow

During Friday’s trading session, the main US stock indexes recovered, reducing losses incurred amid political uncertainty. Nonetheless, investors are concerned whether the US president will be able to fulfill his pre-election promises and reform the US economy. The investors will pick up on even the most subtle changes in the tone of the Federal Reserve representatives during today speeches.

Resistance levels: 20836,63, 20864,42, 20893,95
Support levels: 20758,45, 20721,10, 20688,10

 

Commodity market

Oil is on the rise

Brent Oil Futures

BrentOil

Last Friday, the “black gold” quotes grew steadily. Investors hope that the deal to reduce oil production will be extended. We would like to remind you that the OPEC’s countries meeting is scheduled on the 25th of May at the headquarters of the cartel in Vienna. The possible extension of the deal will be discussed. Meanwhile, analysts are less confident on the terms of the deal, since the United States oil producers can claim the market share which was freed. Today, the oil prices will be guided by the dollar’s dynamics.

 

Resistance levels: 54,30, 54,80, 55,30
Support levels: 53,50, 53,00, 52,50

Daily Market Review – 18/05/2017

Markets slide again because of Trump’s possible impeachment

Forex

European Central Bank’s monthly report will be in focus today

EUR/JPY

EURJPY

During yesterday’s trading, the European currency rate dropped because of political risks. In the US, the new Trump scandal may lead to the announcement of the impeachment procedure for the president. In addition, market participants doubt the ability of the presidential administration to carry out the planned reforms. Reacting on this, investors have traditionally resorted to purchasing defensive assets, which include the Japanese yen. Meanwhile, a definite support for the euro was provided yesterday by the euro area inflation data over the past month. The final data coincided completely with the initial estimate. Yesterday’s data on Japan’s GDP for the first quarter of 2017 did not have a significant impact on the pair’s dynamics.

Today, the investors’ attention will be on the ECB report on the monetary policy, which will be presented at 11:30 (GMT). President’s Mario Draghi speech will take place at 5:00 pm (GMT).

Resistance levels: 124,432, 124,899, 125,542
Support levels: 123,399, 122,922, 122,517

The report on retail sales in the UK may support the pound

GBP/JPY

GBPJPY

In the beginning of yesterday trading session, the UK currency received support from unexpectedly promising data on the UK labor market. According to the data, the unemployment rate in March fell from 4.7% to 4.6%. These results blocked the negative influence from the slow salaries increase in the UK. Meanwhile, the The Japanese yen was in high demand yesterday amid the investors’ fears. Today, the main event for the currency will be the publication of the report on the UK retail sales for April, which is scheduled for 08:30 (GMT).

According to the Bank of England’ report, a deep plunge of the British currency after the referendum on EU membership led to a drop in real household income. In the future, it can reduce the nominal GDP of the country. The today’s report will show how the fall in the exchange rate of the pound affected the British consumers’ behavior. Meanwhile, the currency will also be influenced by external political risks.

Resistance levels: 144,944, 145,658, 146,097
Support levels: 143,620, 143,125, 142,640

Stock market

One of the world’s leading retailers announces their first quarter results today

Wal-Mart Stores Inc (WMT)

Wal-Mart

Today before the opening of the regular session, Wal-Mart will present its quarterly report.  The company is a leader of global retail sales industry. According to analysts’ expectations, the profit per share will be around $ 0.96, while the total revenue will rise to $ 113.2 billion. The forecast values are expected to underestimate the actual data. In this case, the shares’ value may rise to $ 77.00.

Resistance levels: 74,80, 75,20, 75,70
Support levels: 74,30, 73,90, 73,60

Commodity market

Gold price rallied to new high yesterday

 GOLD

Gold

Gold jumped 2% yesterday, adding about $ 25 in price. This dynamic reflected on the investors reaction to increased political risks, as they were pushed toward the safest assets. Another reason for the “golden rush” was the general fall in the US currency exchange rate after the series of disappointing reports. Today, the trading dynamics will be affected by the US labor market report at 12:30 (GMT), and the statements of the US Federal Reserve officials, scheduled for the afternoon.

Resistance levels: 1260,00, 1263,70, 1268,50
Support levels: 1250,00, 1244,90, 1238,00